$1 Billion Bird Flu Plan

Geneva - Moving with unprecedented speed, a global conference on Wednesday unveiled an aggressive blueprint to tackle bird flu and strengthen preparations to cope with a pandemic among humans if the virus mutated into a contagious form.

"The world recognises that this is a major public health challenge," said World Health Organisation (WHO) director general Lee Jong-wook at the end of a meeting of 400 government officials, UN agencies, donors and experts in human and animal health.

"Once a pandemic virus appears, it will be too late," he warned.

The three-day conference agreed a programme to build warning systems to spot early outbreaks of avian influenza among birds and humans, to stockpile drugs and encourage vaccine research, backed by tighter cooperation at every level.

Up to a $1bn will be needed over the next three years to help poor countries shore up their defences, including $35m wanted immediately for action over the next six months.

Two-pronged plan

The two-pronged plan puts the emphasis on containing and then rolling back the virus on farms, with greater veterinary surveillance to detect outbreaks, preventative vaccination of poultry, culling of infected flocks and compensation for farmers.

For preparation in the event of a pandemic, the focus is on strengthening health monitoring systems, stockpiling of antiviral drugs to dampen the spread of an outbreak and exercises to train medical personnel and the public.

Experts acknowledged, though, that the $1bn figure was little more than a stab at quantifying costs.

It does not include the cost of stockpiling antivirals or compensating farmers for culled flocks, both liable to surge if the scare amplifies.

"These figures would go through the roof in the case of a pandemic," said World Bank spokesperson Phillip Hay.

The food and agricultural organisation, the world organisation for animal health and WHO suggested $80m in early help.

Contributions

After consultation, it was decided $35m would go for aid over six months, and the rest in medium-term assistance.

As for contributions, the Asian Development Bank said it could make another $300m available for poorer countries in Asia, in addition to $170m it has already earmarked.

France pledged $12m, mainly to help Africa.

The World Bank last week said it would make $500m available to help poor countries cope with the crisis.

But how, when and where such funding will be used is as yet unclear.

The speedy, ambitious action plan marks a break in the history of how mankind has tackled new diseases.

In the case of Aids and Sars, novel pathogens gained a vital foothold through delays in spotting them, bureaucratic delays or cover-ups and lack of funding.

David Nabarro, the UN's co-ordinator on flu, said: "There's consensus, clarity, there's much better communication.... there's cash, it'll come in China, there's much better co-ordination and all the countries that are involved in this activity are going to give it much more impetus."

"I think we'll be much quicker to control avian influenza as a result and if a pandemic starts there's a pretty good chance it will be smaller as a result of the work we've done in the last three days than it would have been otherwise."

64 dead

Sixty-four people have died since H5N1 erupted among Asian poultry flocks in 2003, according to a WHO toll and national figures.

About 150 million fowl have been slaughtered, and the economic bill is put at more than $10bn.

At present, H5N1's lethal stretch to humans is limited.

It is picked up by people who are in close proximity to infected birds, breathing in virus-laden nasal secretions or pulverised faeces.

In its present form, it is not very transmissible from human to human.

The big worry is that it could gain genes by mixing with conventional flu strains that would make it highly contagious as well as mortal.

In a worst-case scenario, tens of millions of people could die, as nobody would have immunity to the new agent.

Economic costs could be $800bn, according to a World Bank estimate.

source: news24