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Thursday, November 10, 2005

Bird flu could cut oil demand by 7 mln bpd-US group

LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - If bird flu mutates into a major pandemic, global oil demand could plummet by as much as 7 million barrels per day as people refrain from travelling, a U.S. energy consultancy firm said on Thursday.

PIRA Energy Group predicted that a bird flu pandemic that infected 20 percent of the world's population and killed 5 million people could wipe out a year's worth of global oil demand, or 7 million barrels per day for a quarter.

World oil use is currently about 85 million barrels per day, according to data issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Under such a scenario, PIRA said all modes of travel would be drastically reduced worldwide due to fears of contracting the disease.

"This is something worth worrying about," the firm said in a report. "Even a low probability event of such consequence cannot be ignored and must be factored into one's projected risks to oil prices."

Goldman Sachs earlier this week forecast a bird flu pandemic could reduce energy demand by a million barrels per day.

The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu has so far led to the slaughter of millions of birds in Asia and has killed more than 60 people in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia.

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